Analisis dan Peramalan Minat Masyarakat terhadap Dakwah di Indonesia Menggunakan Google Trends dan Model ARIMA Tahun 2015–2025

Siti Istianah; Sumiah Nasution

doi:10.69693/ijim.v4i3.1236

Authors

Siti Istianah Universitas Indraprasta PGRI
Sumiah Nasution Universitas Indraprasta PGRI

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.69693/ijim.v4i3.1236

Keywords:

Dakwah Digital, Google Trends, Minat Masyarakat, Peramalan, ARIMA

Abstract

Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menganalisis dan meramalkan minat masyarakat terhadap dakwah di Indonesia berdasarkan data pencarian digital. Penelitian menggunakan pendekatan kuantitatif dengan data sekunder yang diperoleh dari Google Trends menggunakan kata kunci “Dakwah” pada periode Januari 2015 hingga Desember 2025. Data dianalisis menggunakan metode Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average untuk mengidentifikasi pola pergerakan data dan menghasilkan prediksi pada periode mendatang. Tahapan analisis meliputi uji stasioneritas menggunakan Augmented Dickey-Fuller, identifikasi model, estimasi parameter, pemilihan model terbaik, dan peramalan. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa minat masyarakat terhadap kata kunci “Dakwah” mengalami fluktuasi dengan kecenderungan menurun selama periode pengamatan. Hasil uji stasioneritas menunjukkan bahwa data tidak stasioner pada tingkat level, namun menjadi stasioner setelah diferensiasi orde pertama. Berdasarkan perbandingan beberapa model, model terbaik yang diperoleh adalah ARIMA(1,1,1) dengan nilai Akaike Information Criterion dan Schwarz Criterion terendah. Hasil peramalan periode 2026–2030 menunjukkan kecenderungan penurunan minat pencarian terhadap kata kunci “Dakwah” pada mesin pencari. Temuan ini mengindikasikan adanya perubahan perilaku masyarakat dalam mengakses informasi keagamaan di era digital. Oleh karena itu, lembaga dakwah dan para dai perlu mengoptimalkan pemanfaatan berbagai platform digital untuk meningkatkan efektivitas penyebaran pesan-pesan keislaman sesuai dengan perkembangan teknologi dan kebutuhan masyarakat.

Downloads

Download data is not yet available.

References

Adeni, A., Hakim, L., & Hasanah, S. (2023). Rethinking Islamic Da’wah Model in the Context of Digital Space. Proceeding of Saizu International Conference on Transdisciplinary Religious Studies, 285–294. https://doi.org/10.24090/icontrees.2023.348

Choirin, M., Dwijayanto, A., Yumna, L., & Muaz, Y. A. (2024). Nurturing Moderate Islam: Strategic Da’wah Communication in The Digital Era for Generation Z. International Journal Ihya’ ’Ulum al-Din, 26(1), 108–118. https://doi.org/10.21580/ihya.26.1.20008

Ellyzia Zahra Alidia, Naifa Rahma Nurzalia, Robiah Nur Adawiyah, & Dwi Agus Santoso. (2025). Transformasi Dakwah dan Konseling di Era Digital: Pemanfaatan Teknologi Komunikasi. Journal Islamic Global Network for Information Technology and Entrepreneurship, 3(4), 73–82. https://doi.org/10.59841/ignite.v3i4.3479

Hasanah, U., Anam, K., & Muassomah, M. (2024). Modernising tradition: Reinforcing ASWAJA al-Nahdhiyah authority among millennials in Indonesia. HTS Teologiese Studies / Theological Studies, 80(1). https://doi.org/10.4102/HTS.v80i1.9425

Hawirah, Asriadi, A., Yuliana, Aswandi, S., & Yumi, S. (2025). MASA DEPAN MEDIA KOMUNIKASI DAKWAH. RETORIKA : Jurnal Kajian Komunikasi Dan Penyiaran Islam, 7(2), 25–33. https://doi.org/10.47435/retorika.v7i2.4041

Hidayat, Y. F., & Nuri, N. (2024). Transformation of Da’wah Methods in the Social Media Era: A Literature Review on the Digital Da’wah Approach. IJoIS: Indonesian Journal of Islamic Studies, 4(2), 67–76. https://doi.org/10.59525/ijois.v4i2.493

Höpken, W., Eberle, T., Fuchs, M., & Lexhagen, M. (2019). Google Trends data for analysing tourists’ online search behaviour and improving demand forecasting: the case of Åre, Sweden. Information Technology & Tourism, 21(1), 45–62. https://doi.org/10.1007/s40558-018-0129-4

Iqbal, M., Morris, M. A., & Cade, J. E. (2024). Understanding Searches for ‘Weight Loss’ Using Google Trends. Proceedings of the Nutrition Society, 83(OCE4), E387. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0029665124006256

Jacob, T., & Sahoo, J. R. (2025). Enduring Faith in a Digital Age. Health and Social Care Chaplaincy, 13(2), 258–281. https://doi.org/10.1558/hscc.31980

Kumolo, I. C. (2021). Strategi Dakwah Program “Bincang Ringan Angkringan” di Yufid TV. Jurnal Audiens, 2(1). https://doi.org/10.18196/jas.v2i1.10205

Li, Y., Wu, K., & Liu, J. (2023). Self-paced ARIMA for robust time series prediction. Knowledge-Based Systems, 269, 110489. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.knosys.2023.110489

Mangono, T., Smittenaar, P., Caplan, Y., Huang, V. S., Sutermaster, S., Kemp, H., & Sgaier, S. K. (2021). Information-Seeking Patterns During the COVID-19 Pandemic Across the United States: Longitudinal Analysis of Google Trends Data. Journal of Medical Internet Research, 23(5), e22933. https://doi.org/10.2196/22933

Mavragani, A., & Gkillas, K. (2020). COVID-19 predictability in the United States using Google Trends time series. Scientific Reports, 10(1), 20693. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-020-77275-9

Nisa, N. F. (2024). Contemporary Da’wah Transformation : Jurnal Dakwah, 25(1), 91–114. https://doi.org/10.14421/jd.2024.25105

Panuju, R. (2022). Extracting Religious Identity: The Cyber-Ethnography of Abdul Somad’s Preaching. JOURNAL OF INDONESIAN ISLAM, 15(2), 515. https://doi.org/10.15642/JIIS.2021.15.2.515-534

Rahmat, E., Abidin, Y. Z., Mukarom, Z., & Setiawan, A. I. (2025). Sociology of da’wah in the era of Industry 4.0 and Society 5.0: Implications for contemporary da’wah in Indonesia. Socio Politica : Jurnal Ilmiah Jurusan Sosiologi, 15(2), 217–228. https://doi.org/10.15575/socio-politica.v15i2.46196

Riyanto, A., Malik, A. M., & Rayhaniah, S. A. (2025). DA’WAH TRANSFORMATION IN THE DIGITAL AGE. KOMUNIKE, 17(2), 231–247. https://doi.org/10.20414/jurkom.v17i2.14543

Rusli, R. (2024). Information Technology as a Modern Da’wah Media in Indonesia: Prospects and Challenges. At-Tafkir, 16(2), 195–204. https://doi.org/10.32505/at.v16i2.9148

Simamora, I. Y., & Farid, A. S. (2024). Rethinking the use of Social Media in Islamic Broadcasting Practices: A Theological Perspective. Pharos Journal of Theology, (105(5)). https://doi.org/10.46222/pharosjot.105.516

Sopiyan, W., Ramdhani, R., & Sihabudin, D. (2025). Transformasi Komunikasi Dakwah Di Era Digital (Analisis Strategi dan Tantangan dalam Penyebaran Pesan Islami). Jurnal Khabar: Komunikasi Dan Penyiaran Islam, 7(1), 199–208. https://doi.org/10.37092/khabar.v7i1.1147

Szilagyi, I.-S., Ullrich, T., Lang-Illievich, K., Klivinyi, C., Schittek, G. A., Simonis, H., & Bornemann-Cimenti, H. (2021). Google Trends for Pain Search Terms in the World’s Most Populated Regions Before and After the First Recorded COVID-19 Case: Infodemiological Study. Journal of Medical Internet Research, 23(4), e27214. https://doi.org/10.2196/27214

Teng, Y., Bi, D., Xie, G., Jin, Y., Huang, Y., Lin, B., An, X., Feng, D., & Tong, Y. (2017). Dynamic Forecasting of Zika Epidemics Using Google Trends. PLOS ONE, 12(1), e0165085. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0165085

Yeung, A. W. K., Parvanov, E. D., Horbańczuk, J. O., Kletecka-Pulker, M., Kimberger, O., Willschke, H., & Atanasov, A. G. (2023). Public interest in different types of masks and its relationship with pandemic and policy measures during the COVID-19 pandemic: a study using Google Trends data. Frontiers in Public Health, 11. https://doi.org/10.3389/fpubh.2023.1010674

Yus, Y., & Maseleno, A. (2025). From The Podium To Social Media: The Evolution Of Islamic Da’wah In The Digital Era. Greenation International Journal of Law and Social Sciences, 3(4), 1539–1543. https://doi.org/10.38035/gijlss.v3i4.708